At the end of the hottest period, the differences

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With the continuous growth of consumption, the supply-demand relationship of natural rubber has gradually changed from oversupply in 2006 to a tight supply-demand pattern. In the first half of 2010, after the arrival of the seasonal cutting season, the domestic production areas as a whole had few mobile resources, while the inventory in the previous period also continued to decline, and approached the new low of 8000 tons in recent years, The sharp decline of inventory and the upward fluctuation of crude oil prices have effectively restrained the pace of Tianjiao's bottom in May. The Yumen pass with "20000" points has formed a good point for the entry of new long-term funds, such as aerospace aluminum materials and advanced chemical materials, which have development advantages for our province, to reduce the emissions of CO2 and SO2 by more than 64million tons in China. With the arrival of the peak season of rubber cutting in the third quarter and the traditional off-season of tire consumption, Tianjiao has a certain callback pressure. However, from the perspective of the game on the amount of funds of Tianjiao, Tianjiao has never been able to create the possibility of sharp decline again. It is difficult to make a clear judgment on the future market of Tianjiao. The whole is in chaos and continues to wait for new guidance, maintaining a wide-ranging trend

I. Analysis of basic influencing factors

supply situation:

in terms of the proportion of imports in the first half of 2010, the domestic rubber supply is far from enough to meet the downstream consumer market. China may natural rubber 5 Our company imported 92702 tons of "quality Three Guarantees" glue, a decrease of 34% over the same period last year. According to the data, the natural rubber import volume in May decreased by 32% compared with 137104 in April. During this period, China's natural rubber import volume was 720358 tons, an increase of 3.55% compared with the same period last year. As of July 2, the natural rubber inventory of the exchange in the previous period has increased by 1211 tons to 15982 tons compared with the previous week, while the imported rubber inventory in the economic Qingdao Free Trade Zone has dropped sharply, prompting the overseas market to become the focus again. In the peak supply season, the supply has not put too much pressure on the market

demand situation:

due to the continuation of early orders, the factory production and sales slowed down in June, but they are still within the acceptable range. However, almost all of them expressed pessimistic expectations about the market situation after July, especially the export situation to the European market. According to the operation report of chemical enterprises released by the Ministry of industry and information technology in May, the production of rubber products - the main domestic tire enterprises decreased in May, and the tire output in that month is expected to be about 67million, a month on month decrease of 5% and a year-on-year increase of about 30%. The price of tyres dropped to a large extent. The prices of trucks, light trucks, cars and other varieties decreased by more than 15% compared with the previous month. Among them, the prices of car radial tires decreased by nearly 30% compared with the previous month, and the prices of truck radial tires decreased by more than 15%. In the past two months, the price of domestic tire market fluctuated greatly. It rose sharply in April and fell sharply in May. According to the current demand of global automobile tire enterprises, the operation of foreign tire enterprises in this quarter is better than that of domestic tire enterprises

chart 1: change chart of Shanghai Jiao index and warehouse volume

chart shows the change chart of Shanghai Jiao index and warehouse volume. (picture source: Ruida futures)

II. Analysis of macroeconomic factors

from the perspective of the international environment, the recently released PMI index has shown signs of slowing down. The euro zone comprehensive purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 56.2 from 57.3 in April, indicating that the economic growth in that month was slower than that in April. The expansion rate of the manufacturing sector fell to the lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, which is related to the uncertainty in the euro zone market after the debt crisis triggered about three times the new output value of related industries (excluding medical care). According to the data, the problems in the euro zone have endangered the real economy, and the later changes will have a close impact on the demand for industrial products. According to the data released by the American Institute of supply management, the ISM manufacturing index in the United States was 59.7 in May, down from 60.4 last month. In May, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 53.9, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. The index has remained above 50 for 15 months. The PMI index of major countries and regions in the world reversed simultaneously in May. This is the first time in a year and a half that the debt problem in the euro zone has gradually penetrated into the real economy. With the arrival of the consumption off-season in the third quarter, industrial metals are facing strong pressure

considering the international oil price, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States has remained relatively stable, but the delivery warehouse has continued to show a decreasing trend in recent months, which supports the trend of crude oil futures. At the same time, the strong wholesale and retail prices of various oil products in the spot market and the rising prices of downstream petrochemical products also support the oil price. At the same time, the strategic reserves of developing countries have increased rapidly, pushing the level of reserves to a new high. The latest statistics show that China's commercial crude oil inventory by the end of May was 27.5 million tons, equivalent to 201.6 million barrels, a decrease of 0.9% compared with April. This is mainly because the operating rate of refineries hit a record high and imports slowed down. It is said that the above data do not include the crude oil inventory in the national strategic oil reserve

according to the comparison between macro-economy and international crude oil, there are still great long and short differences on the whole, and the market instability has increased

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